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Lesson 3 of 3 ยท 6 min read

Market cycles & bubbles

Markets breathe in cycles of fear and greed.

The four phases

Markets move roughly in phases: accumulation (smart money buys quietly), mark-up (uptrend, optimism), distribution (smart money sells to the crowd) and mark-down (decline, panic).

recoverypeakrecessionrecovery
Business cycle: economies move in waves. Recovery, boom, slowdown, recession.

Bubbles

A bubble forms when prices detach from real value, driven by FOMO and 'this time it's different'. They always burst โ€” only the when is unpredictable.

hypemaniapopprice โ‰ซ value
A bubble inflates on hype until the price leaves value far behind. Then it pops.

What it means for you

You don't have to guess the top or bottom. By investing in a spread-out and consistent way (DCA) and keeping a cool head during extremes, you benefit from the cycle without getting caught up in it.

โ— = fixed monthly deposit
Dollar-cost averaging: a fixed amount every month. Sometimes you buy high, sometimes low. It evens out.

Remember this

  • Markets move in four phases: accumulation, mark-up, distribution, mark-down.
  • Bubbles form when price detaches from value due to FOMO; they always burst.
  • The when of a bubble is unpredictable.
  • You don't have to guess a top or bottom: DCA and a cool head are enough.

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Market cycles & bubbles