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Lesson 1 of 3 ยท 7 min read

What is a company worth?

Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

Price โ‰  value

The share price is what the market asks today. The 'intrinsic value' is what the company is really worth based on future earnings. Investing is about finding that difference.

Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5distant cash flows = worth less โ†“presentvalue
DCF: future cash flows are worth less today. You 'discount' them back to their present value.

Discounted Cash Flow (the idea)

A DCF estimates all future free cash flows and discounts them back to today (because money is worth less later). The sum = a rough estimate of the value. It is sensitive to your assumptions โ€” 'garbage in, garbage out'.

Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5distant cash flows = worth less โ†“presentvalue
DCF: future cash flows are worth less today. You 'discount' them back to their present value.

Multiples as a shortcut

In practice, many people use multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA) to quickly compare companies with sector peers. Faster than a DCF, but cruder.

P/E 9Value stockP/E 18Market avgP/E 45Growth stock
Price/earnings (P/E): how much you pay per euro of profit. Higher can mean 'expensive' or 'high growth expectations'.

Margin of safety

Because every estimate is uncertain, value investors only buy with a 'margin of safety' โ€” well below their estimated value. That way you have a buffer if you are wrong.

value โ‚ฌ100price โ‚ฌ60safetymargin
Buy below what you think it's worth. That gap is your margin of safety.

Remember this

  • Price is what the market asks; intrinsic value is what the company is really worth.
  • A DCF discounts future cash flows, but is sensitive to assumptions ('garbage in, garbage out').
  • Multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA) are a faster but cruder shortcut.
  • Buy with a margin of safety, well below your estimate, as a buffer.

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2 questions that check whether it stuck. They live in the app, because a quiz nobody grades teaches nothing.

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What is a company worth?