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Lesson 3 of 4 ยท 6 min read

Interest rates & the central bank

Why a single sentence from the Fed/ECB can move the entire market.

Interest = the price of money

Central banks (Fed in the US, ECB in Europe) set interest rates. High rates = borrowing is expensive, saving more attractive โ†’ often a headwind for stocks. Low rates = the opposite.

normal โ†—inverted โ†˜maturity โ†’
Yield curve: normally longer maturities sit higher. An inverted curve often precedes a recession.

Why growth stocks react extra

When rates are high, 'money now' is worth more than 'profit later'. Growth stocks (profits far in the future) therefore often fall harder when rates rise.

rate โ†‘prices โ†“higher rates pressure valuations
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on valuations.

Inflation is the driver

Banks mainly raise rates to tame inflation. That's why the market watches inflation figures so closely โ€” they predict what the bank will do.

What your money will buy
โ‚ฌ10,000 after 20 years
$5,537
Inflation3.0%
Years20

Remember this

  • Interest is the price of money: high = headwind, low = tailwind for stocks.
  • Growth stocks fall harder when rates rise because their profits lie far in the future.
  • Inflation is the driver: banks raise rates to tame it.
  • That's why the market watches inflation figures closely.

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Interest rates & the central bank